An overwhelming majority of Montezuma County voters are not willing to increase taxes for Montezuma-Cortez School District Re-1s master facility plan, according to survey data reviewed by the districts board of education Tuesday night.
The board examined data collected through a mail-in and phone survey, representing responses from roughly 1,300 district residents.
The data was presented via telephone conference by Paul Hanley, senior vice president at Denver-based investment banking firm George K. Baum.
The surveys, conducted by Hill Research Consultants of Denver, were sent out and completed in June seeking public response regarding a possible bond election to raise $42.5 million toward an $80 million capital project. The project would replace Kemper and Mesa elementary schools as well as Montezuma Cortez High School and renovate Cortez Middle School, Pleasant View and Lewis-Arriola elementary schools.
The bond discussion was necessitated by the districts application for a $37 million cost-share grant from the Colorado Department of Educations Building Excellent Schools Today program. On June 29 the district was informed its application fell short and the grant would not be forthcoming.
Hanley walked the board first through the mail-in survey results Tuesday night, noting that particular survey was not considered scientifically significant.
It is not scientific and not a predictor of success or failure in terms of bond elections, Hanley said. Really it is to gauge where the community is in terms of values.
The survey was sent out to 4,800 active voter households in the district and nearly 1,000 were returned, a response rate of roughly 19 percent.
It is about as strong as a response as I have seen, Hanley said.
In the survey, 77 percent of respondents said they had at least some knowledge of the districts efforts to obtain a matching grant for the replacement and renovation of certain schools. Nearly half of the respondents, 48 percent, said they would vote in favor of a bond issue.
Hanley said mail-in surveys tend to be favorable toward projects and with a positive response of less than 50 percent, the odds for positive phone survey results did not favor the district.
Mail surveys tend to have a more positive bent than phone polls, and when I saw these results I knew the phone poll results were going to be pretty tough, Hanley said.
In the phone poll, a scientific survey which polled just over 300 likely voters, 57 percent of respondents said they would not vote for a bond issue, with 45 percent of respondents stating they were strongly opposed to the question.
We surveyed 303 likely voters and it was difficult just to get that number complete, Hanley said. Field research showed it was just brutal to get that many. It was a tough poll.
During initial polling, researchers hope to see a positive response of between 56 and 58 percent if a ballot question has a chance of passing because as time passes voters look for a reason to vote against tax increases, Hanley said. Only 36 percent of respondents in the Re-1 poll indicated a willingness to vote for a large bond, and only 23 percent of respondents were a strong yes.
Voters polled were asked to grade the Re-1 district. Most voters, 37 percent, gave the district an average grade. Twenty-five percent gave the district a B, 22 percent a D or F and only 1 percent of respondents graded the district at an A level.
Another interesting piece of the survey related to a question asking voters if life in this part of Colorado is moving in the right direction or on the wrong track. Sixty-one percent of respondents said life in Montezuma County is on the wrong track. Only 25 percent said life is headed in the right direction.
Hanley said the numbers were almost directly opposite responses in neighboring La Plata County.
You are really looking at some pretty tough numbers in this district, Hanley said. Based on these numbers, there is no way the current package would pass.
The silver lining of the surveys for the district came in the fact that respondents did recognize a need for facility improvement.
Most folks recognize your facilities are less than ideal, Hanley said. Thats a good thing. But I think the economy just dwarfed everything else in terms of the responses. Voters are hunkered down and protecting their wallets, and they are scared of anything new. Even if the state had funded a good portion of the project, the voters werent buying it. They are in favor of repairs, but not new buildings.
School board members had few questions during the presentation. Board President Jackie Fisher thanked Hanley and Robin Moore, also of George K. Baum, for the work that was done on the surveys.
We really appreciate the work we have done with you, and I think we have learned a lot, although not all of it is easy to hear, Fisher said. The more outreach that we do and the better we are able to listen is good. Our public needs to know that we were asking to hear their opinions and we did hear what they had to say. We have more knowledge than when we started this process, and that is never a bad thing.
Fisher noted the board will need to discuss priorities in facility needs and the possibility of another BEST application for the next funding cycle in 2012.
As a community we have to decide how we should take care of our buildings, Fisher said. Those questions still have to be answered.
Reach Kimberly Benedict at [email protected].
