Rain early this week has provided some small hope for ag producers in Montezuma County, but runoff from the high country is not likely to go far toward mitigating the drought, and this year's wildfire danger is almost guaranteed to be severe.
Early in 2013, the weather outlook for Southwest Colorado looked promising. Storms swept through Cortez at a steady clip. Snowpack levels in the San Juan mountains were the best in state. The parched Front Range, by comparison, was struggling. Conditions grew so bad that a 1,300-acre wildfire broke out near Fort Collins in the middle of March. While human-caused, the blaze was a grim reminder of how much destruction a careless human decision or isolated lightning strike can wreak during dry years.
But then relief came.
Late-season storms through April, and into May, have taken the edge off the drought in northern Colorado. As of May 3, the four northernmost river basins - Yampa/White, North Platte, South Platte and Colorado - were at or near 100 percent of average snowpack.
Temperatures have been kind to Colorado. Except in the very southwest corner and the San Luis Valley, temperatures were up to eight degrees below normal in April, according to the High Plains Regional Climate Center. The cooler air helped snow stick in the high country instead of melting quickly.
Agonizingly, the storms bypassed most of southern Colorado. From Cortez to Trinidad and into the Eastern Plains, towns have been left out to dry.
The Gunnison and Arkansas river basins sit at 75 percent of average snowpack, while the San Juan/Dolores basin is a meager 41 percent. The Upper Rio Grande is faring the worst, at 37 percent.
Local meteorologist Jim Andrus recorded only 0.22 inches of precipitation in April, about 25 percent of normal.
"We've been killed with kindness," he said. "It's great if you're out for a bike ride, but little reason to be cheerful if you're thinking about wildfire (danger) or irrigation."
The strength of late-summer monsoons is difficult to predict this early. With the country experiencing a neutral weather year - neither El Niño or La Niña - forecasters have few clues. It's a roll of the dice.
According to a summer outlook released last Wednesday by the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, portions of California, Oregon and Idaho are at worst risk for wildfires from June to August. Arizona, New Mexico and the southern quadrant of Colorado are also identified as potential hot spots.
"A large portion of the Rocky Mountain area experienced some drought relief this spring in wetter and cooler than average conditions. However, below average precipitation trends dominated across southwestern Kansas and southern Colorado," the report said. "Statewide snow deficits in Colorado were most evident in the southwest part of the state, where higher elevation heavy fuels could post a greater risk for fire activity this year."
The picture isn't getting any prettier for Montezuma County's food growers. The tempered optimism of a few months ago has all but evaporated.
As of May 1, McPhee Reservoir's active storage was only 49,000 acre-feet. Mike Preston, general manager for the Dolores Water Conservancy District, gave some context for how much projected inflow (runoff) has dropped. On Feb. 1, DWCD hoped for 205,000 acre-feet; at that level full-service irrigators would have, just barely, received their full water allocations, Preston said. By May 1, projected inflow plunged to 107,000 acre-feet, meaning only a 30 percent allocation supply.
"A month ago we were telling people not to count on any irrigation water in September. Now we'll see how far we get into August," he said. "It'll depend how heavily farmers draw from their allocations early in the season, which is influenced on rainfall and other factors."
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