Snowpack in the Dolores River Basin is behind where it should be this time of year.
Three measuring points called SNOTELs positioned in the Dolores Valley mountains are overall showing 72 percent of the median figure for Jan. 27.
The units are used to help predict runoff into McPhee Reservoir and determine likely water allocation for farmers during the irrigation season.
“Unfortunately, we’re telling farmers it looks like last year, but it is still early,” said Ken Curtis, engineer with the Dolores Water Conservancy District.
Lizard Head Pass has seen good snowpack, recording 98 percent of the median figure for Jan. 27. However, the SNOTELs at El Diente show 57 percent; at Lone Cone, 72 percent; and Sharkstooth, at 60 percent.
The Dolores Basin joins the Upper Rio Grande, Animas, San Juan and San Miguel river basins as having the driest conditions in the state, at 64 percent of the median, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service.
On the up side, the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center is confident more snow will fall. Based on 30 years of snowpack, soil moisture, and runoff data from 1981 to 2010, as of mid-January, they predicted McPhee will receive 250,000 acre-feet of runoff, which when added to carry-over storage would create a full supply.
“But if it continues down, there will be shortages,” for McPhee water users, Curtis said.
The anticipated El Niño phenomenon that warms the eastern Pacific Ocean at the equator did not materialize this year.
“It fizzled, and with it the increased chances of more southerly storms tracking into the Four Corners,” said meteorologist Jim Andrus.
Unseasonably warm weather in Cortez on Sunday and Monday broke records, Andrus said. On Jan. 25, the mercury hit 60 degrees, eclipsing the previous record of 58 set on Jan. 25, 1958. On Jan. 26, Cortez was a balmy 61 degrees, beating the previous record 58 degrees on Jan. 26, 1951.
